Crichton on Environmental Science

Crichton had comment to make on the considerable difference between that which the environmental lobby is projecting to us and the actual findings of applied scientific research. The following is from the start of Part 2 of State of Fear, as the 'good guys' are flying into the Antarctic.

Evans stared out the narrow window of the Hercules. The vibration of the props made him sleepy, but he was fascinated by what he saw beneath him—mile after mile of gray ice, a vista broken by intermittent fog, and the occasional outcrop of black rock. It was a monochromatic, sunless world. And it was huge.

“Enormous,” Kenner said. “People have no perspective on Antarctica, because it appears as a fringe at the bottom of most maps. But in fact, Antarctica is a major feature on the Earth’s surface, and a major factor in our climate. It’s a big continent, one and a half times the size of either Europe or the United States, and it holds ninety percent of all the ice on the planet.”

“Ninety percent?” Sarah said. “You mean there’s only ten percent in the rest of the world?”

“Actually, since Greenland has four percent, all the other glaciers in the world—Kilimanjaro, the Alps, the Himalaya, Sweden, Norway, Canada, Siberia—they all account for six percent of the planet’s ice. The overwhelming majority of the frozen water of our planet is in the continent of Antarctica. In many places the ice is five or six miles thick.”

“No wonder they’re concerned that the ice here is melting,” Evans said.

Kenner said nothing.

Sanjong was shaking his head.

Evans said, “Come on, guys. Antarctica is melting.”

“Actually, it’s not,” Sanjong said. “I can give you the references, if you like.”

Kenner said, “While you were asleep, Sanjong and I were talking about how to clarify things for you, since you seem to be so ill-informed.”

“Ill-informed?” Evans said, stiffening.

“I don’t know what else one would call it,” Kenner said. “Your heart may be in the right place, Peter, but you simply don’t know what you’re talking about.”

“Hey,” he said, controlling his anger. “Antarctica is melting.”

“You think repetition makes something true? The data show that one relatively small area called the Antarctic Peninsula is melting and calving huge icebergs. That’s what gets reported year after year. But the continent as a whole is getting colder, and the ice is getting thicker.”

“Antarctica is getting colder? ”

Sanjong had taken out a laptop and was hooking it up to a small portable bubble jet printer. He flipped open his laptop screen.

“What we decided,” Kenner said, “is that we’re going to give you references from now on. Because it’s too boring to try and explain everything to you.”

A sheet of paper began to buzz out of the printer. Sanjong passed it to Evans.

Doran, P. T., Priscu, J. C., Lyons, W. B., Walsh, J. E., Fountain, A. G., McKnight, D. M., Moorhead,D. L., Virginia, R. A., Wall, D. H., Clow, G. D., Fritsen, C. H., McKay, C. P., and Parsons, A. N., 2002, “Antarctic climate cooling and terrestrial ecosystem response,” Nature 415: 517–20.

From 1986 to 2000 central Antarctic valleys cooled .7º C per decade with serious ecosystem damage from cold.

Comiso, J. C., 2000, “Variability and trends in Antarctic surface temperatures from in situ and satellite infrared measurements,” Journal of Climate 13: 1674–96.

Both satellite data and ground stations show slight cooling over the last 20 years.

Joughin, I., and Tulaczyk, S., 2002, “Positive mass balance of the Ross Ice Streams, West Antarctica,” Science 295: 476–80.

Side-looking radar measurements show West Antarctic ice is increasing at 26.8 gigatons/yr. Reversing the melting trend of the last 6,000 years.

Thompson, D. W. J., and Solomon, S., 2002, “Interpretation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change,” Science 296: 895–99.

Antarctic peninsula has warmed several degrees while interior has cooled somewhat. Ice shelves have retreated but sea ice has increased.

Petit, J. R., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., Barkov, N. I., Barnola, J.-M., Basile, I., Bender, M., Chappellaz, J., Davis, M., Delaygue, G., Delmotte, M., Kotlyakov, V. M., Legrand, M., Lipenkov, V. Y., Lorius, C., Pepin, L., Ritz, C., Saltzman, E., and Stievenard, M., 1999, “Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica,” Nature 399: 429–36.

During the last four interglacials, going back 420,000 years, the Earth was warmer than it is today.

Anderson, J. B., and Andrews, J. T., 1999, “Radiocarbon constraints on ice sheet advance and retreat in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica,” Geology 27: 179–82.

Less Antarctic ice has melted today than occurred during the last interglacial.

Liu, J., Curry, J. A., and Martinson, D. G., 2004, “Interpretation of recent Antarctic sea ice variability,” Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10.1029/2003 GL018732.

Antarctic sea ice has increased since 1979.

Vyas, N. K., Dash, M. K., Bhandari, S. M., Khare, N., Mitra, A., and Pandey, P. C., 2003, “On the secular trends in sea ice extent over the antarctic region based on OCEANSAT-1 MSMR observations,” International Journal of Remote Sensing 24: 2277–87.

Trend toward more sea ice may be accelerating.

Parkinson, C. L., 2002, “Trends in the length of the southern Ocean sea-ice season, 1979–99,” Annals of Glaciology 34: 435–40.

The greater part of Antarctica experiences a longer sea-ice season, lasting 21 days longer than it did in 1979.

“Okay, well, I see slight cooling referred to here,” Evans said. “I also see warming of the peninsula of several degrees. That certainly seems more significant. And that peninsula’s a pretty big part of the continent, isn’t it?” He tossed the paper aside. “Frankly, I’m not impressed.”

Sanjong said, “The peninsula is two percent of the continent. And frankly, I am surprised that you did not comment on the most significant fact in the data you were given.”

“Which is?”

“When you said earlier that the Antarctic is melting,” Sanjong said, “were you aware that it has been melting for the lastsix thousand years? ”

“Not specifically, no.”

“But generally, you knew that?”

“No,” Evans said. “I wasn’t aware of that.”

“You thought that the Antarctic melting was something new?”

“I thought it was melting faster than previously,” Evans said.

“Maybe we won’t bother anymore,” Kenner said.

Sanjong nodded, and started to put the computer away.

“No, no,” Evans said. “I’m interested in what you have to say. I’m not closed-minded about this. I’m ready to hear new information.”

“You just did,” Kenner said.

Evans picked up the sheet of paper again, and folded it carefully. He slipped it into his pocket.

“These studies are probably financed by the coal industry,” he said.

“Probably,” Kenner said. “I’m sure that explains it. But then, everybody’s paid by somebody. Who pays your salary?”

“My law firm.”

“And who pays them?”

“The clients. We have several hundred clients.”

“You do work for all of them?”

“Me, personally? No.”

“In fact, you do most of your work for environmental clients,” Kenner said. “Isn’t that true?”

“Mostly. Yes.”

“Would it be fair to say that the environmental clients pay your salary?” Kenner said.

“You could make that argument.”

“I’m just asking, Peter. Would it be fair to say environmentalists pay your salary?”

“Yes.”

“Okay. Then would it be fair to say the opinions you hold are because you work for environmentalists”

“Of course not—”

“You mean you’re not a paid flunky for the environmental movement?”

“No. The fact is—”

“You’re not an environmental stooge? A mouthpiece for a great fund-raising and media machine—a multi-billion-dollar industry in its own right—with its own private agenda that’s not necessarily in the public interest?”

“God damn it—”

“Is this pissing you off?” Kenner said.

“You’re damn right it is!”

“Good,” Kenner said. “Now you know how legitimate scientists feel when their integrity is impugned by slimy characterizations such as the one you just made. Sanjong and I gave you a careful, peer-reviewed interpretation of data. Made by several groups of scientists from several different countries. And your response was first to ignore it, and then to make an ad hominem attack. You didn’t answer the data. You didn’t provide counter evidence. You just smeared with innuendo.”

“Oh, fuck you,” Evans said. “You think you have an answer for everything. But there’s only one problem: Nobody agrees with you. Nobody in the world thinks that Antarctica is getting colder.”

“These scientists do,” Kenner said. “They published the data.”

Evans threw up his hands. “The hell with it,” he said. “I don’t want to talk about this anymore.”

He walked to the front of the plane and sat down, crossed his arms, and stared out the window.

Kenner looked at Sanjong and Sarah. “Anyone feel like coffee?”